Delaware Weather Forecast

[frogman68]

No we got a Ts

[Mark]

Your wish is my command!

Tropical Storm Ingrid formed tonight.

Anyone want to take an educated guess as to how this storm is going to progress and what path it will take?

[witchofthedogs]

It'll go out to sea.

[Robb]

Yeah Ingrid looks like a fish storm, but who knows nowadays.

Accuweather thinks Humberto may get reincarnated.

[frogman68]

Accuweather thinks Humberto may get reincarnated.

Hey keep on subject nothing on reincarnation

[Curly]

Anyone want to take an educated guess as to how this storm is going to progress and what path it will take?

Over water to land.

[rstonecousley]

Anyone want to take an educated guess as to how this storm is going to progress and what path it will take?

Ingrid's in an area that's not favorable for rapid development or intensification so she'll slowly move westward without much strengthening. The forecast models are showing her recurving out to sea after a few days and, aside from maritime interest, shouldn't pose a threat to the US mainland. She may not even impact The Bahamas or Bermuda.

She WILL however give the weather guys (especially the one's here in Florida) something to focus on for the next week or so.

[rstonecousley]

Tropical activity possible in Gulf of Mexico

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Tropical activity is possible in a couple of days in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a report Tuesday.

At 5:30 a.m. EDT (0930 GMT), the NHC said, "Conditions are currently unfavorable for development of a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorm associated with a tropical wave and an upper-level trough (an elongated area of low pressure) from the east coast of Florida eastward for a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic and Bahamas."

However, the NHC added, "Slow development is possible in a couple of days when the system moves westward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico."

The energy market watches for tropical storms because they can disrupt U.S. oil and natural gas production and refining if the storms enter the Gulf of Mexico.

Commodities traders also track tropical storms because they can damage citrus crops in Florida and such crops as cotton along the Gulf Coast.

The NHC will name the next tropical storm Jerry. A tropical storm typically packs winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour.

SOURCE

[Robb]

Tropical activity possible in Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Hunter on standby for Thursday after the low passes over Florida. Maybe we'll have Jerry by the weekend.

[rstonecousley]

Hurricane Hunter on standby for Thursday after the low passes over Florida. Maybe we'll have Jerry by the weekend.

Speaking of Hurricane Hunters, there are two sets of Hurricane Hunters - the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based in Biloxi, MS as well as the NOAA Hurricane Hunters based out of MacDill AFB here in Tampa.

The St. Petersburg Times has a really cool interactive feature with loads of information on the Hurricane Hunters. You can read all about them HERE.

[rstonecousley]

Hurricane Hunter on standby for Thursday after the low passes over Florida. Maybe we'll have Jerry by the weekend.

I think you're right Robb....From the satellite and radar imagery that i've been looking at, rain bands are developing and the system seems to be getting better organized. The water temps down here are still in the upper 80's and from an upper level perspective this system is in an area that is extremely favorable for development. There are also reports of tropical storm force winds out in the Bahamas (though I don't believe a low level circulation has been detected just yet).

The forecast models indicate the system's going to do some strengthening but then head across the Florida peninsula - "landfalling" around the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area then exiting the coast somewhere between Ft. Myers and Tampa - where it will most likely then become a tropical storm. Beyond that all bets are off.

I think over the next few days i'm going to make sure our gutters are cleared and that nothing will block the drainage and runoff of the expected torrential rains.....

Can you tell i'm excited about this?!? I love tropical weather!!!

[Robb]

Some more action for NOLA?

[rstonecousley]

This is the system that has been over Florida for the past few days. The center of the low has now crossed the peninsula and has re-emerged over the Gulf just west of Tampa. It appears to be strengthening ever so slowly and is so far following the forecast path. Models are indicating steady intensification and a general westward, eventually turning northwestward, movement towards the Louisiana coast, in the Plaquemans Parish area.

As an aside, because this system will probably impact the oil production in the Gulf, expect some fluctuations in oil prices over the next few days as the storm moves westward. Several production platforms have already shut down and begun evacuating their personnel.

[Robb]

Subtropical Depression Ten forms!

[Robb]

Subtropical Depression Ten forms!

Subtropical Depression Ten has become Tropical Depression Ten.

[Robb]

Subtropical Depression Eleven formed and then became Subtropical Storm Jerry today. No threat to land.

[rstonecousley]

We are now in the midst of the peak of Atlantic hurricane season and there are three different areas to monitor for tropical development.

Closest to home is a tropical disturbance located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. On the northern portion of this area of interest is a train of tropical moisture that is surging into Louisiana. Flooding will likely become a concern as the day unfolds as rain falls over the same areas over and over again during the day.

Meanwhile, on the southern end of this disturbance is a large ball of convection (thunderstorms). Satellite imagery is showing some evidence that a weak surface low may be trying to develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico; north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. This area will have to be monitored closely as it drifts erratically.

In the far Northern Atlantic, about 945 miles west-northwest of the Azores, is where Tropical Depression Jerry is located. By tomorrow morning, Jerry will be absorbed into a much larger mid-latitude low pressure system. Jerry and the cold front that will absorb it are expected to only be a hazard to shipping interests.

Approaching the Lesser Antilles is a tropical low that will bring showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the islands today and Tuesday. Although the area of showers and thunderstorms is not organized at this time, there is some potential for it to become a depression during the next day or two.

Probably one of the more organized disturbances is a low pressure area located about 730 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It's nearly at the halfway point between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands so we have several days to monitor. However, there is a good chance it will be deemed a tropical depression within the next 1 to 2 days.

SOURCE

[Robb]

TS Jerry is just a remnant now.

TD 12 formed and became TS Karen this morning.

[Mark]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2517868.ece

La Nina threatens to wreck world’s weather


Experts predict a run of severe weather in the coming months, with devastating floods striking some parts of the world while severe droughts afflict other regions, as the climate phenomenon known as La Niña gathers momentum.
A chronic drought afflicting southern California and many southeastern states of America could be exacerbated, with Los Angeles heading for its driest year on record. In contrast, western Canada and the northwestern US could turn colder and snowier. Mozambique, southeast Africa, and northern Brazil may face exceptionally heavy rains and floods, while southern Brazil and much of Argentina suffer drought.
La Niña could even rearrange the pattern of sea ice around the Antarctic, pushing the ice pack towards the Pacific side of the continent. Already, torrential rains have triggered severe floods across a huge swath of Central Africa, stretching from Senegal in the west to Uganda in the east.
Rupa Kumar Kolli, chief of world applications at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva, predicts that the worst of La Niña is yet to come. “This La Niña is now in its developing phase and getting stronger, and we can expect it to peak this coming December and January,” he said. Whether this episode of La Niña will make itself felt in Britain and continental Europe this winter is not certain. “We tend to get a mild end to winter with La Niña, but it’s not a strong signal,” said Adam Scaife, at the Hadley Centre of the Met Office in Exeter.
Met Office scientists have found that La Niña is likely to have played a part in the abysmal British summer. By upsetting the usual track of the high-altitude jet stream towards Britain, it delivered barrages of slow-moving Atlantic depressions with torrents of rain. La Niña may also have been involved in the spectacular Asian monsoon this summer, leading to floods that killed about 1,000 people in India and Bangladesh. And it allows hurricanes to develop - already this month the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico have experienced two monstrous Category 5 storms. Another hurricane broke the record for the fastest intensification of a storm.
La Niña occurs when the tropical seas of the Pacific off the coast of Latin America cool down, while the waters turn warmer towards Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia. That lurch in ocean temperatures can send weather systems into havoc over vast areas, delivering huge deluges of rain over the Far East and tropical Australia, while western parts of Latin America turn much drier than usual. This is the flip side of El Niño, although La Niña lasts for a shorter time, usually no more than a year.
The way that La Niña casts its spell over the globe, from the Pacific to the rest of the world, is known as a “tele-connection”. By disrupting sea temperatures, pressure systems and winds over the Pacific, it interferes with the atmospheric circulation around the tropics. This sends out waves in the atmosphere, like casting a stone into a pond, which can change the strength and position of jet stream winds several miles high. In this way the Pacific can have a huge impact on the weather far from the tropics.

[frogman68]

Tropical Strom Karen forms in Atlantic


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/wea...,3383657.story

I guess Robb was right the storms are flying lol