Will it snow on December 5th 2011?

[Robb]

It always seems to snow on December 5th.

Do you think it will snow this year on 12/5/2011?

Figured I post this early before we get any hints of it.

Snow includes just a trace of it (flurries/dusting/etc).


FYI its snowed like 6 times on December 5th since 2002 around here.

[Josef]

I'm going to say no, mainly because the law of averages. Meaning that if it's snowed 6 times in the last 9 years on December 5th, then it's probably due not to snow this year.

[Jimmy Biggs]

Probably not .......... for the last 8 years I have been at a convention the first week of December and it has snowed here while I was gone ........ This year because of my accident I won't be traveling till well after New Years

[motherof3]

It's a Monday, of course it will snow. Just to make my day suck all the more.........I hate Mondays almost as much as I hate shoveling snow

[Robb]

Still another day to get your votes in!

One model thinks our trace of snow will come a day late......

But its close, so maybe by 11:30pm on the 5th. ;-)

[Crabby]

Nope, not gonna snow until much later. Maybe the end of December, between Christmas and New Years. My eight ball never lies!

[Tracy]

it's gonna snow february 7th

[Bellicose]

Nope, not gonna snow until much later. Maybe the end of December, between Christmas and New Years. My eight ball never lies!

As I don't like this either, I do like the fact that you think the first snow fall will be late December. The closer to Spring the better!

[Joe Walther]

I don’t know if it will snow on December 5, 2011. However, if you’re going to bet the farm on it, Crabby’s EIGHT BALL is just as reliable a predictor as the Josef’s “law of averages” is. But, for a small fee, I’ll let you know for SURE by watching for a flare-up of my wife’s arthritis. It hits her big time within two days of impending cold, damp weather. Glenn (Hurricane) Schwartz calls her frequently during late fall and throughout the winter.

It’s like she’s some kind of psychic about it. But, women being psychic about certain outcomes aren’t unusual. For example, a woman—your wife or girl friend—is the first to know if, and when, you’re going to get laid. But this is another branch of science altogether!

Let’s see; tomorrow is December 1. I’ll know by Saturday if it’s going to snow on Monday. Glenn’s ALREADY called twice! And, if it IS going to snow, I can predict with a 100% confidence interval and a ZERO percent margin of error that I’m NOT going to get laid. She also gets headaches a day or two BEFORE her arthritis flares up.

Anyway, the “law of averages” has sent more compulsive gamblers to the poor house than the totality of the nation’s bill collectors have. Scads of people use the term as though it were some sort of mathematical imprimatur. It’s not; it’s not even scientific as it’s used by most people.

Random event outcomes are not mathematically compelled to break-even over the short term. Of course, randomness tends to reflect it’s empirically based underlying probability over the long run, but the sample size has to be very large.

In fact, one of the easiest things for math experts to do is uncover “canned” randomness. We know, empirically, that runs occur in small samples. And, people who try to defraud others by creating phony random outcome reports ALWAYS fail to consider this.

One of the most difficult things for laypeople to accept is the nature of randomness. Absent mechanical bias, if you flip a fair coin, the odds are 50-50 that it will land tails-up. However, just because it lands tails-up four straight times, does not mean it’s LIKELY to land heads-up on the fifth flip. The odds are still going to be 50-50.

The ONLY exception to this—at least as far as I know—is the late Andy Rooney’s 50-50-90 rule. It states with unbelievable accuracy that whenever there is a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% chance that YOU’LL get it wrong.

But, the real kicker relative to this “will it snow” question is that weather events like snow, rain, heat spells, cold spells, etc are not random events; they’re based entirely on weather patterns, which are predictable.

[Curly]

Nope, global warming.

[longnecker]

Since the weatherman on WBOC is calling for 60's mid day I'd say no snow today.

[Robb]

Since the weatherman on WBOC is calling for 60's mid day I'd say no snow today.

Yeah.... Booooo.....

Although......

There is a slight potential for snow on Thursday/Friday.

[Crabby]

I'll ask my eight ball again.

[Robb]

I'll ask my eight ball again.

I asked mine....

[Bellicose]

Robb I think your magic 8 ball is broken

[Robb]

Robb I think your magic 8 ball is broken

No no, this is our Dec 5th snow, its just 3 days late. ;-)

Chance of greater than 1 inch:

[max1]

hehe

[Robb]

Accuweather's Henry M prediction:

[longnecker]

I hope your map is right Robb. Sussex still looks good!!

[Robb]

I hope your map is right Robb. Sussex still looks good!!

Yeah this looks like an I-95 storm and mostly N&W of 95.