Re: Will it snow on December 5th 2011?
I don’t know if it will snow on December 5, 2011. However, if you’re going to bet the farm on it, Crabby’s EIGHT BALL is just as reliable a predictor as the Josef’s “law of averages” is. But, for a small fee, I’ll let you know for SURE by watching for a flare-up of my wife’s arthritis. It hits her big time within two days of impending cold, damp weather. Glenn (Hurricane) Schwartz calls her frequently during late fall and throughout the winter.
It’s like she’s some kind of psychic about it. But, women being psychic about certain outcomes aren’t unusual. For example, a woman—your wife or girl friend—is the first to know if, and when, you’re going to get laid. But this is another branch of science altogether!
Let’s see; tomorrow is December 1. I’ll know by Saturday if it’s going to snow on Monday. Glenn’s ALREADY called twice! And, if it IS going to snow, I can predict with a 100% confidence interval and a ZERO percent margin of error that I’m NOT going to get laid. She also gets headaches a day or two BEFORE her arthritis flares up.
Anyway, the “law of averages” has sent more compulsive gamblers to the poor house than the totality of the nation’s bill collectors have. Scads of people use the term as though it were some sort of mathematical imprimatur. It’s not; it’s not even scientific as it’s used by most people.
Random event outcomes are not mathematically compelled to break-even over the short term. Of course, randomness tends to reflect it’s empirically based underlying probability over the long run, but the sample size has to be very large.
In fact, one of the easiest things for math experts to do is uncover “canned” randomness. We know, empirically, that runs occur in small samples. And, people who try to defraud others by creating phony random outcome reports ALWAYS fail to consider this.
One of the most difficult things for laypeople to accept is the nature of randomness. Absent mechanical bias, if you flip a fair coin, the odds are 50-50 that it will land tails-up. However, just because it lands tails-up four straight times, does not mean it’s LIKELY to land heads-up on the fifth flip. The odds are still going to be 50-50.
The ONLY exception to this—at least as far as I know—is the late Andy Rooney’s 50-50-90 rule. It states with unbelievable accuracy that whenever there is a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% chance that YOU’LL get it wrong.
But, the real kicker relative to this “will it snow” question is that weather events like snow, rain, heat spells, cold spells, etc are not random events; they’re based entirely on weather patterns, which are predictable.
Even if the pessimists are right, in the end, the optimists will have had a much more enjoyable trip through life.