Weather service warns of 'certain death' in face of Ike

witchofthedogs · #21 09-12-2008, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

I was hearing about that this morning while watching Houston news online. The Coast Guard received a distress call from the crew, but said they couldn't risk the lives of the rescuers. One of the reporters did a report from the Coast Guard and said (I don't know how true this is) that if there were fewer people they could send a small boat out there that could do 40 MPH or more to get them, but since there was 22 people, they'd have to send a much bigger boat, which would go a lot slower, and there wasn't enough time to get them. They seemed a little annoyed too that this big freighter had put itself into harms way when they knew well in advance of the storm. Plus it is a freighter of coke for oil plants which is like a tar. Hopefully nothing happens to it or that would be an environmental mess.

CNN just ran a blurb. The Coast Guard tried to get a helicopter out there, but as of last word, it was unable to take anyone off the boat. The Coast Guard was hoping that the storm would push the freighter to shallow water where the could anchor and ride of the back end of the hurricane. They're supposed to be updating the story momentarily.

Kid Lester · #22 09-12-2008, 04:39 PM

That thing's the size of 3 football fields...but when that 20 foot storm surge comes, there's gonna be 22 puckered a-holes on that baby.

Robb · #23 09-12-2008, 04:40 PM

Storm surge flooding of 20-25 feet. That's huge, not counting the 15 foot waves on top of the flood. 135 miles away from Galveston.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE'S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...27.7 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

witchofthedogs · #24 09-12-2008, 04:40 PM

Also, here is the website of the Galveston County Daily News. I don't know how often it is being updated or if any further updates will be made before the storm:

http://www.galvnews.com/

And KHOU in Houston:

http://www.khou.com/

Robb · #25 09-12-2008, 04:46 PM

Galveston Island already has 9 foot flooding.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.

Panama Girl · #26 09-12-2008, 04:50 PM

I hope my friend Jess and her family are ok.... and that their house isn't too badly hit; they just found a buyer for it and still haven't closed on the deal.

witchofthedogs · #27 09-12-2008, 04:50 PM

Military cannot rescue ship's crew from Hurricane Ike - CNN.com

HOUSTON, Texas (CNN) -- The U.S. Coast Guard and Air Force were unable to rescue 22 people aboard a freighter adrift in the Gulf of Mexico because of weather conditions, the two military branches said Friday.

"Weather on scene deteriorated to a point that made the rescue impossible," the Coast Guard said in a statement issued Friday. First Lt. Lauren Johnson, an Air Force spokeswoman, confirmed the report.

The five aircraft, including two Air Force Osprey tilt-rotor planes, were dispatched around noon (1 p.m. ET), Coast Guard Petty Officer Jaclyn Young said.

The 584-foot Cyprus-flagged freighter, the Antalina, was trying to beat the storm heading south from Port Arthur, Texas, when it lost power about 90 miles south of Galveston, Coast Guard Capt. Bill Diehl said.

Coast Guard Petty Officer Thomas Blue earlier had said a helicopter rescue might not be possible because of high winds.

"The best-case scenario is that Hurricane Ike pushes this freighter up into shallow water where they can drop anchor and ride out the storm," Blue said.

People are going to die in the next 24 hours. Whether it's the 22 on that ship or the thousands who elected to stay behind.

This is going to go sideways so fast, we won't know what hit us.

witchofthedogs · #28 09-12-2008, 05:04 PM

Robb, I don't know if you posted this earlier, but HurricaneTrack.com has a wind tower and webcam up in Galveston:

HurricaneTrack.com- Member Supported Hurricane News, Tracking and Reporting

Robb · #29 09-12-2008, 05:05 PM

I'm still watching the Houston live coverage (yeah I'm watching it all night) and they reminded people who stayed behind to write their social security numbers on their arms in marker in case they die.

witchofthedogs · #30 09-12-2008, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm still watching the Houston live coverage (yeah I'm watching it all night) and they reminded people who stayed behind to write their social security numbers on their arms in marker in case they die.

That will be me as soon as I get back from helping Wendy tonight. I'll probably end up sleeping on the living room couch with CNN on the big TV and KHOU on the laptop.

It's Katrina all over again.

ETA: Reading the local Galveston paper's updated, it looks like Galveston was not prepared to evacuate and screwed the pooch on this one.

Weather service warns of 'certain death' in face of Ike

National News